Implementation and Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System Over the Pacific Northwest

Initial Results of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest

Motivated by the promising results of global-scale ensemble forecasting, a number of groups have attempted mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF), focusing mainly over the eastern half of the United States. To evaluate the performance of mesoscale SREF over the Pacific Northwest and to test the value of using different initial analyses as a means of ensemble forecast generation, a f...

Effective Mesoscale, Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting

This study developed and evaluated a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system with the goal of producing useful, mesoscale forecast probability (FP). Real-time, 0 to 48-h SREF predictions were produced and analyzed for 129 cases over the Pacific Northwest. Eight analyses from different operational forecast centers were used as initial conditions (ICs) for running the Fifth-Generation Penn...

Preliminary evaluation of a short-range ensemble prediction system over western Mediterranean

A generation of a short-range ensemble prediction system, based on a set of mesoscale models with different subgrid-scale physic schemes and two different initial conditions, is developed, providing flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts by means of predictive probability distributions over the Western Mediterranean. A ten members short-range ensemble forecast system has been constructed over w...

Evaluation of WRF and HadRM Mesoscale Climate Simulations over the United States Pacific Northwest

The Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Circular Variables and its Application to Mesoscale Forecast Ensemble Verification

An analogue of the linear continuous ranked probability score is introduced that applies to probabilistic forecasts of circular quantities. This scoring rule is proper and thereby discourages hedging. The circular continuous ranked probability score reduces to angular distance when the forecast is deterministic, just as the linear continuous ranked probability score generalizes the absolute err...